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{
  "away": "First Vienna",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0047,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Voitsberg 1.31 – 1.37 First Vienna.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFirst Vienna's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nVoitsberg's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nVoitsberg missing 1.7 regular starters; First Vienna missing 1.5 regular starters takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 34% (+2.0 pts); Away win 42% → 40% (-2.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 30% → 33%; Away win 44% → 41%.",
  "fixture": 1567924,
  "home": "Voitsberg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4062,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4015,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 34% (+2.0 pts); Away win 42% → 40% (-2.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 30% → 33%; Away win 44% → 41%."
}