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{
  "away": "Cusco",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0352,
  "explanation": "Away win: 23% against a market price of 20% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Sport Huancayo 1.59 – 1.35 Cusco.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+52% goals at home) takes 3.4 pts from away win.\nCusco's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nSport Huancayo's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nCusco's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 53% → 57%, draw 25% → 23%, away 22% → 20%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+2.5 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-1.0 pts); Away win 25% → 23% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 53% → 57%; Draw 25% → 23%; Away win 22% → 20%.",
  "fixture": 1549516,
  "home": "Sport Huancayo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1996,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "4.50",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2348,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 53% → 57%, draw 25% → 23%, away 22% → 20%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+2.5 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-1.0 pts); Away win 25% → 23% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 53% → 57%; Draw 25% → 23%; Away win 22% → 20%."
}