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Entry #314: pick published

Hash verified

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v Istra 1961: Home win 40% @ 2.29 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:47.321380+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0aa60e79de80f62b3045757b3d857979d59ebaf52b796e7ed7dca7444ee283fc
Stored hash: d6f984d644a2281755f1de50f9574e32d8ea5cdf834eeef5e004644bb94ed8e5
Recomputed: d6f984d644a2281755f1de50f9574e32d8ea5cdf834eeef5e004644bb94ed8e5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Istra 1961",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0028,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.41 – 1.25 Istra 1961.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nNK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1548543,
  "home": "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.406,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4032,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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