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Entry #315: pick published

Hash verified

HJK Helsinki v Gnistan: Home win 63% @ 1.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:48.446365+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d6f984d644a2281755f1de50f9574e32d8ea5cdf834eeef5e004644bb94ed8e5
Stored hash: f371b02e27e9fd7fa29a076a5a8279e6ca88066b1e7d11ca5275f9aec78f68ca
Recomputed: f371b02e27e9fd7fa29a076a5a8279e6ca88066b1e7d11ca5275f9aec78f68ca

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gnistan",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0288,
  "explanation": "Home win: 63% against a market price of 66% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals HJK Helsinki 2.14 – 1.41 Gnistan.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHJK Helsinki's attack (1.36× the league rate) adds 3.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nGnistan's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nGnistan's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1638107,
  "home": "HJK Helsinki",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6561,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6272,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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