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Entry #316: pick published

Hash verified

Ascoli v Empoli: Home win 50% @ 1.91 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:01:49.574706+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f371b02e27e9fd7fa29a076a5a8279e6ca88066b1e7d11ca5275f9aec78f68ca
Stored hash: bf2a51ea0fdeca67cc11211b6fd7f1e43ee1c4a0f2829eca98f5d0a2819d0575
Recomputed: bf2a51ea0fdeca67cc11211b6fd7f1e43ee1c4a0f2829eca98f5d0a2819d0575

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Empoli",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0001,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 50% (-0.0%).\nExpected goals Ascoli 1.70 – 1.10 Empoli.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nEmpoli's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1601553,
  "home": "Ascoli",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4953,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.91",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4952,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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