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Entry #43: pick published

Hash verified

FC Copenhagen v SC Braga: Home win 43% @ 2.28 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T19:30:02.375938+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 655e64962cc97e3e6902f861e557369baecf742a01200043a56cbda5dec03f17
Stored hash: 10975dc60b0b921efc2bb280ec802566a8f0f7cd3643747be112bdc20f259761
Recomputed: 10975dc60b0b921efc2bb280ec802566a8f0f7cd3643747be112bdc20f259761

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "SC Braga",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0119,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+1.2%).\nExpected goals FC Copenhagen 1.71 – 1.14 SC Braga.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±11.1%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nFC Copenhagen's attack (1.27× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nSC Braga's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 43% (+3.4 pts); Draw 29% → 29% (-0.5 pts); Away win 31% → 28% (-2.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 38% → 42%; Draw 30% → 29%; Away win 32% → 29%.",
  "fixture": 1636406,
  "home": "FC Copenhagen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "UEFA Europa Conference League",
  "league_api_id": 848,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4161,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-848-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.28",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.428,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 43% (+3.4 pts); Draw 29% → 29% (-0.5 pts); Away win 31% → 28% (-2.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 38% → 42%; Draw 30% → 29%; Away win 32% → 29%."
}

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