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Entry #44: pick published

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Huracan v Gimnasia L.P.: Home win 40% @ 2.38 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T20:30:05.464336+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 10975dc60b0b921efc2bb280ec802566a8f0f7cd3643747be112bdc20f259761
Stored hash: 07d06497c721c0e511c8512d3178a91052efdb492f6b7e993ddf6ac8bf9d4b8f
Recomputed: 07d06497c721c0e511c8512d3178a91052efdb492f6b7e993ddf6ac8bf9d4b8f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gimnasia L.P.",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0027,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 40% (+0.3%).\nExpected goals Huracan 1.25 – 1.00 Gimnasia L.P..\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nGimnasia L.P.'s attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nGimnasia L.P.'s defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 40% (+2.1 pts); Away win 31% → 29% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 40%; Away win 32% → 29%.",
  "fixture": 1493190,
  "home": "Huracan",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T23:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3961,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.38",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3988,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 40% (+2.1 pts); Away win 31% → 29% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 40%; Away win 32% → 29%."
}

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