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Entry #45: pick published

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Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo: Home win 26% @ 3.95 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:05.257298+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 07d06497c721c0e511c8512d3178a91052efdb492f6b7e993ddf6ac8bf9d4b8f
Stored hash: fd3eacb14a7a4fca0c79dad563e7156283cbcc57aa1544a374326605484572e3
Recomputed: fd3eacb14a7a4fca0c79dad563e7156283cbcc57aa1544a374326605484572e3

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Flamengo",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0306,
  "explanation": "Home win: 26% against a market price of 23% (+3.1%).\nExpected goals Estudiantes L.P. 1.17 – 0.92 Flamengo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+49% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nFlamengo's defence (0.82× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nEstudiantes L.P.'s defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nFlamengo's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1640555,
  "home": "Estudiantes L.P.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
  "league_api_id": 13,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2341,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-13-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "3.95",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2647,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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