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Entry #46: pick published

Hash verified

Obolon'-Brovar v Veres Rivne: Away win 37% @ 2.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:06.267110+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fd3eacb14a7a4fca0c79dad563e7156283cbcc57aa1544a374326605484572e3
Stored hash: 4e67b068c99d7e286fef451afad63d700df0d26d9871de36507c0e585409dced
Recomputed: 4e67b068c99d7e286fef451afad63d700df0d26d9871de36507c0e585409dced

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Veres Rivne",
  "bookmakers": 8,
  "edge": -0.0052,
  "explanation": "Away win: 37% against a market price of 38% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 – 1.05 Veres Rivne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±13.1%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nObolon'-Brovar's attack (0.77× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nVeres Rivne's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nObolon'-Brovar's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1565502,
  "home": "Obolon'-Brovar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3782,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.373,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#45 #47

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