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Entry #47: pick published

Hash verified

Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda: Home win 50% @ 1.78 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:07.792009+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 4e67b068c99d7e286fef451afad63d700df0d26d9871de36507c0e585409dced
Stored hash: 761adc1f01893b4b1b80d098aee601546a6dc4e65ece5df693d6d22b872d1dee
Recomputed: 761adc1f01893b4b1b80d098aee601546a6dc4e65ece5df693d6d22b872d1dee

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Tianjin Teda",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0308,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 53% (-3.1%).\nExpected goals Henan Jianye 1.52 – 1.25 Tianjin Teda.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nTianjin Teda's defence (0.90× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nHenan Jianye's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTianjin Teda's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.1%).",
  "fixture": 1523275,
  "home": "Henan Jianye",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T11:35:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super League",
  "league_api_id": 169,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5325,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-169-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.78",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5017,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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