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{
  "away": "Dubai United",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.018,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 37% (+1.8%).\nExpected goals Al-Dhafra 1.42 – 2.09 Dubai United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±13.1%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDubai United's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nAl-Dhafra's defence (1.20× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nAl-Dhafra's attack (0.78× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nDubai United's defence (1.20× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.8%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 42% → 37%, draw 25% → 25%, away 33% → 37%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 36% (-4.4 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.5 pts); Away win 35% → 39% (+3.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 37%; Draw 25% → 25%; Away win 33% → 37%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1639007,
  "home": "Al-Dhafra",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T13:05:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 301,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3735,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-301-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.47",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3915,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 42% → 37%, draw 25% → 25%, away 33% → 37%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 36% (-4.4 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.5 pts); Away win 35% → 39% (+3.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 42% → 37%; Draw 25% → 25%; Away win 33% → 37%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}