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Entry #189: pick published

Hash verified

Al Ahli Doha v Al Wakrah: Away win 39% @ 2.32 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T13:23:32.885485+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7998216193a08e47769d79195abe391aaba4bf61e46c4d77143adcf27b41c4bb
Stored hash: dbd655245e936b9390a9f8fb8eaa71404c31c768b6f5548ccb19e59d39866df9
Recomputed: dbd655245e936b9390a9f8fb8eaa71404c31c768b6f5548ccb19e59d39866df9

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al Wakrah",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0064,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 39% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Al Ahli Doha 1.78 – 1.71 Al Wakrah.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl Ahli Doha's defence (1.04× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 41% → 37%, draw 23% → 23%, away 36% → 39%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 38% (-2.4 pts); Away win 36% → 39% (+2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 37%; Away win 36% → 39%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1597938,
  "home": "Al Ahli Doha",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Stars League",
  "league_api_id": 305,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3947,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-305-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.32",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3883,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 41% → 37%, draw 23% → 23%, away 36% → 39%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 38% (-2.4 pts); Away win 36% → 39% (+2.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 37%; Away win 36% → 39%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}

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