Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Abha",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0122,
  "explanation": "Home win: 86% against a market price of 87% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 – 0.75 Abha.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 69% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.71× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nAbha's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nAl-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-5-2, Abha 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 86% → 87%; Draw 9% → 9%.\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1603050,
  "home": "Al-Qadisiyah FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T13:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8731,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.10",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.8609,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-5-2, Abha 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 86% → 87%; Draw 9% → 9%.\nTag changed from Banker to Avoid."
}