Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Veres Rivne",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0136,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 37% (+1.4%).\nExpected goals Obolon'-Brovar 0.75 – 1.18 Veres Rivne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±9.7%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nObolon'-Brovar's defence (1.33× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nVeres Rivne's attack (0.80× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nObolon'-Brovar's attack (0.75× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nObolon'-Brovar missing 5.1 regular starters; Veres Rivne missing 1.6 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.4%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 29% → 30% (+1.6 pts); Draw 31% → 31% (+0.5 pts); Away win 40% → 38% (-2.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 30% → 32%; Draw 30% → 31%; Away win 39% → 37%.",
  "fixture": 1565502,
  "home": "Obolon'-Brovar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3692,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.50",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3827,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 29% → 30% (+1.6 pts); Draw 31% → 31% (+0.5 pts); Away win 40% → 38% (-2.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 30% → 32%; Draw 30% → 31%; Away win 39% → 37%."
}