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{
  "away": "Csikszereda",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0065,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 58% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Oţelul 1.55 – 0.80 Csikszereda.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+47% goals at home) adds 4.0 pts to home win.\nCsikszereda's defence (1.22× the league rate against) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nOţelul missing 3.5 regular starters; Csikszereda missing 1.9 regular starters takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nCsikszereda's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Oţelul 4-3-3, Csikszereda 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 57% (-2.1 pts); Draw 23% → 25% (+1.5 pts); Away win 18% → 18% (+0.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 24% → 25%.",
  "fixture": 1565274,
  "home": "Oţelul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5756,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.64",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5691,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Oţelul 4-3-3, Csikszereda 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 59% → 57% (-2.1 pts); Draw 23% → 25% (+1.5 pts); Away win 18% → 18% (+0.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 24% → 25%."
}