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{
  "away": "Al-Wasl FC",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": -0.0189,
  "explanation": "Away win: 63% against a market price of 65% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Baniyas SC 1.16 – 1.86 Al-Wasl FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±9.3%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Wasl FC's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nAl-Wasl FC's defence (0.85× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nBaniyas SC's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nBaniyas SC's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 16% → 18% (+1.1 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+0.7 pts); Away win 65% → 63% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 15% → 16%; Draw 18% → 19%; Away win 67% → 65%.",
  "fixture": 1639008,
  "home": "Baniyas SC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 301,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6457,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-301-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.46",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.6268,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nOur probabilities: Home win 16% → 18% (+1.1 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+0.7 pts); Away win 65% → 63% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 15% → 16%; Draw 18% → 19%; Away win 67% → 65%."
}