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{
  "away": "Djurgardens IF",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0405,
  "explanation": "Home win: 19% against a market price of 15% (+4.0%).\nExpected goals IF Brommapojkarna 1.46 – 1.83 Djurgardens IF.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDjurgardens IF's attack (1.26× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nDjurgardens IF's defence (0.82× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nIF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.11× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: IF Brommapojkarna 4-4-2, Djurgardens IF 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 22% → 21% (-0.9 pts); Away win 59% → 60% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1494298,
  "home": "IF Brommapojkarna",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.153,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "5.70",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1935,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: IF Brommapojkarna 4-4-2, Djurgardens IF 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 22% → 21% (-0.9 pts); Away win 59% → 60% (+1.3 pts)."
}