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{
  "away": "Hertha BSC",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0119,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Holstein Kiel 1.46 – 1.44 Hertha BSC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nRest days (Holstein Kiel 7, Hertha BSC 5) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHolstein Kiel's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nHertha BSC's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1, Holstein Kiel 4-5-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 35% (+0.6 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.6 pts); Away win 41% → 40% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 34% → 35%; Away win 42% → 41%.",
  "fixture": 1576201,
  "home": "Holstein Kiel",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4126,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4007,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1, Holstein Kiel 4-5-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 35% (+0.6 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.6 pts); Away win 41% → 40% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 34% → 35%; Away win 42% → 41%."
}