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Entry #201: pick published

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Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg: Home win 32% @ 3.59 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-16T16:21:07.136528+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c6accf2b2e17b841c34d3aa38c31ee755d6f2592d77237e8a83922873153ef73
Stored hash: 870f267b235cd496c05791933b02bcbed4790843454df0418a63b639729ff1fd
Recomputed: 870f267b235cd496c05791933b02bcbed4790843454df0418a63b639729ff1fd

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "1. FC Nürnberg",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0609,
  "explanation": "Home win: 32% against a market price of 26% (+6.1%).\nExpected goals Energie Cottbus 1.83 – 1.69 1. FC Nürnberg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\n1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nEnergie Cottbus's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nEnergie Cottbus's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1, Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 29% → 32% (+2.8 pts); Away win 49% → 46% (-2.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1576198,
  "home": "Energie Cottbus",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2571,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.59",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3181,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 6.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1, Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 29% → 32% (+2.8 pts); Away win 49% → 46% (-2.9 pts)."
}

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