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{
  "away": "First Vienna",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0146,
  "explanation": "Away win: 42% against a market price of 44% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Voitsberg 1.31 – 1.37 First Vienna.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFirst Vienna's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nVoitsberg's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nVoitsberg missing 1.7 regular starters; First Vienna missing 1.5 regular starters takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Voitsberg 5-4-1, First Vienna 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 31% → 32% (+0.7 pts); Draw 25% → 26% (+0.5 pts); Away win 44% → 42% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 45% → 44%.",
  "fixture": 1567924,
  "home": "Voitsberg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4391,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.12",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4244,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Voitsberg 5-4-1, First Vienna 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 31% → 32% (+0.7 pts); Draw 25% → 26% (+0.5 pts); Away win 44% → 42% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 45% → 44%."
}