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{
  "away": "FC Sochi",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.016,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+1.6%).\nExpected goals Rotor Volgograd 1.54 – 1.29 FC Sochi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nFC Sochi's attack (1.21× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nRotor Volgograd's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nRotor Volgograd's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rotor Volgograd, FC Sochi.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 37% (+0.7 pts); Draw 30% → 29% (-1.4 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 36%; Draw 29% → 30%.",
  "fixture": 1577550,
  "home": "Rotor Volgograd",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3583,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.60",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3743,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rotor Volgograd, FC Sochi.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 37% (+0.7 pts); Draw 30% → 29% (-1.4 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 36%; Draw 29% → 30%."
}