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{
  "away": "Radnicki NIS",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0137,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 43% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Radnik Surdulica 1.27 – 1.13 Radnicki NIS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Radnik Surdulica 6, Radnicki NIS 5) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRadnik Surdulica missing 2.1 regular starters; Radnicki NIS missing 2.5 regular starters takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nRadnicki NIS's attack (0.91× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Radnicki NIS 4-5-1, Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 42% (-1.7 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+1.2 pts); Away win 29% → 29% (+0.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1553889,
  "home": "Radnik Surdulica",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4313,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.13",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4176,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Radnicki NIS 4-5-1, Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 42% (-1.7 pts); Draw 28% → 29% (+1.2 pts); Away win 29% → 29% (+0.6 pts)."
}