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Entry #48: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Dhafra v Dubai United: Away win 43% @ 2.76 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:08.029256+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 761adc1f01893b4b1b80d098aee601546a6dc4e65ece5df693d6d22b872d1dee
Stored hash: 2910e0d351cfbe79305c183307502cbdaed561da80c68a682d68dd458df0565a
Recomputed: 2910e0d351cfbe79305c183307502cbdaed561da80c68a682d68dd458df0565a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dubai United",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.0951,
  "explanation": "Away win 43% against a market price of 33% (+9.5%).\nExpected goals Al-Dhafra 1.34 – 2.23 Dubai United, from 5 and 5 matches in this competition over the last 12 months (recent ones count more). Our model carries 39% of the weight; the market price carries the rest.\nAl-Dhafra's attack (rating 0.65, league average 1.00) adds 5.6 pts to the away win.\nDubai United's attack (rating 1.24) adds 3.6 pts to the away win.\nDubai United's defence (goals-against rating 1.30) takes 2.6 pts from the away win.\nTagged Value: our 43% beats the market's 33%.",
  "fixture": 1639007,
  "home": "Al-Dhafra",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T13:05:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 301,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3301,
  "model": "market-prior(shin)+poisson v0.2",
  "odds_taken": "2.76",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4252,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 43% beats the market's 33%",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#47 #49

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