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Entry #49: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha: Home win 86% @ 1.11 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:09.264635+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2910e0d351cfbe79305c183307502cbdaed561da80c68a682d68dd458df0565a
Stored hash: a677e9fb08ce873884248afe09718d0d77a14052127652bcbfa6a2e7d9643ec2
Recomputed: a677e9fb08ce873884248afe09718d0d77a14052127652bcbfa6a2e7d9643ec2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Abha",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0081,
  "explanation": "Home win: 86% against a market price of 86% (-0.8%).\nExpected goals Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.59 – 0.97 Abha.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 68% (uncertainty ±13.2%), so it carries 6% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.76× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nAbha's attack (0.74× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 86% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1603050,
  "home": "Al-Qadisiyah FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T13:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.8642,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.11",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.8561,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "86% likely, uncertainty only ±0.8%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#48 #50

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