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Entry #50: pick published

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Lokomotivi Tbilisi v Merani Tbilisi: Home win 40% @ 2.47 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:10.028670+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a677e9fb08ce873884248afe09718d0d77a14052127652bcbfa6a2e7d9643ec2
Stored hash: 554f67f08279843d2d158f091387d21b85a7838c84a15a6f177d892987aee74f
Recomputed: 554f67f08279843d2d158f091387d21b85a7838c84a15a6f177d892987aee74f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Merani Tbilisi",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0264,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 37% (+2.6%).\nExpected goals Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1.70 – 1.01 Merani Tbilisi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nLokomotivi Tbilisi's defence (0.84× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nMerani Tbilisi's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.6%).",
  "fixture": 1507465,
  "home": "Lokomotivi Tbilisi",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga 3",
  "league_api_id": 1104,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3695,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-1104-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.47",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3959,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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