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Entry #59: pick published

Hash verified

Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC: Away win 41% @ 2.22 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:21.982922+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 8bb8559cb8492239522695a32dabd828028fdb149453a4fa3320487ab0c6ab42
Stored hash: 8718a33384b3ba4c73f947b03e77381ebf02e4855d7a921beccfbfaf7ee6011f
Recomputed: 8718a33384b3ba4c73f947b03e77381ebf02e4855d7a921beccfbfaf7ee6011f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hertha BSC",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0103,
  "explanation": "Away win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Holstein Kiel 1.47 – 1.51 Hertha BSC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 1.9 pts from away win.\nRest days (Holstein Kiel 7, Hertha BSC 5) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nHertha BSC's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nHolstein Kiel's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1576201,
  "home": "Holstein Kiel",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4235,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.22",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4132,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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