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{
  "away": "Raków Częstochowa",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0228,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 46% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Wieczysta Kraków 1.51 – 1.41 Raków Częstochowa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Wieczysta Kraków 4, Raków Częstochowa 7) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nRaków Częstochowa's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nWieczysta Kraków's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).",
  "fixture": 1553197,
  "home": "Wieczysta Kraków",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4594,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.04",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4366,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}