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Entry #746: pick published

Hash verified

Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas: Home win 43% @ 2.27 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:36.873754+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: cdb3a78b514e2d6978888900b4cca07e50687458e004b78cc8060a0bd92788f4
Stored hash: 1848a8b7b171b151953a6539640f1284027803233cbeaf87ce89b9621d8a31ff
Recomputed: 1848a8b7b171b151953a6539640f1284027803233cbeaf87ce89b9621d8a31ff

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Dallas",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0141,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+1.4%).\nExpected goals Houston Dynamo 1.75 – 1.34 FC Dallas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nHouston Dynamo's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nHouston Dynamo's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Houston Dynamo 3, FC Dallas 3) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1490549,
  "home": "Houston Dynamo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4173,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.27",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4314,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#745 #747

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