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Entry #747: pick published

Hash verified

Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake: Away win 41% @ 2.25 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:39.993942+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1848a8b7b171b151953a6539640f1284027803233cbeaf87ce89b9621d8a31ff
Stored hash: 872d0b78d4b91992b6b0151fca59e7f6e83f0a1655bff0115c5b042da7ee50fe
Recomputed: 872d0b78d4b91992b6b0151fca59e7f6e83f0a1655bff0115c5b042da7ee50fe

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Real Salt Lake",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0088,
  "explanation": "Away win: 41% against a market price of 42% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Sporting Kansas City 1.63 – 1.67 Real Salt Lake.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSporting Kansas City's defence (1.22× the league rate against) adds 2.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) takes 2.0 pts from away win.\nReal Salt Lake's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nSporting Kansas City's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1490550,
  "home": "Sporting Kansas City",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4205,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.25",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4118,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#746 #748

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