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Entry #748: pick published

Hash verified

Denver Summit W v Angel City W: Home win 43% @ 2.09 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:41.425738+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 872d0b78d4b91992b6b0151fca59e7f6e83f0a1655bff0115c5b042da7ee50fe
Stored hash: 3a58638f8efa7696ceb0e40c7752f740da56205c1566d85f5e837c77472b85aa
Recomputed: 3a58638f8efa7696ceb0e40c7752f740da56205c1566d85f5e837c77472b85aa

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Angel City W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0005,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals Denver Summit W 1.61 – 1.43 Angel City W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nDenver Summit W's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nAngel City W's defence (0.96× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1508576,
  "home": "Denver Summit W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T00:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "NWSL Women",
  "league_api_id": 254,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.434,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-254-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.09",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4345,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#747 #749

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