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Entry #749: pick published

Hash verified

Leon v Club America: Away win 44% @ 2.08 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:44.282894+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3a58638f8efa7696ceb0e40c7752f740da56205c1566d85f5e837c77472b85aa
Stored hash: c1bc0faf5777210c8511732c02191df126a195ee615efe10a08ea6219297fb4a
Recomputed: c1bc0faf5777210c8511732c02191df126a195ee615efe10a08ea6219297fb4a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Club America",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0144,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 45% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Leon 1.27 – 1.45 Club America.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nClub America's attack (1.12× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nClub America's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nLeon's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).",
  "fixture": 1550998,
  "home": "Leon",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4535,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4391,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#748 #750

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