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Entry #750: pick published

Hash verified

Toluca v Atletico San Luis: Home win 69% @ 1.31 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:46.895717+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c1bc0faf5777210c8511732c02191df126a195ee615efe10a08ea6219297fb4a
Stored hash: 28c1a295b77a0c0c0256be2273af343a3d8315c466ad73e06744e6d4bc3d344e
Recomputed: 28c1a295b77a0c0c0256be2273af343a3d8315c466ad73e06744e6d4bc3d344e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Atletico San Luis",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.039,
  "explanation": "Home win: 69% against a market price of 73% (-3.9%).\nExpected goals Toluca 2.11 – 1.07 Atletico San Luis.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 60% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 3.9 pts to home win.\nToluca's attack (1.24× the league rate) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nAtletico San Luis's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nToluca's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.9%).",
  "fixture": 1550999,
  "home": "Toluca",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.731,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.31",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.692,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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