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Entry #751: pick published

Hash verified

Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas: Home win 49% @ 1.95 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:14:49.555090+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 28c1a295b77a0c0c0256be2273af343a3d8315c466ad73e06744e6d4bc3d344e
Stored hash: 10ce609ff1f407058265143afedfcdec5fc844350b01c79da8458fcf441b80a0
Recomputed: 10ce609ff1f407058265143afedfcdec5fc844350b01c79da8458fcf441b80a0

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Once Caldas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0073,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 48% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Independiente Medellin 1.48 – 0.85 Once Caldas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+42% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nIndependiente Medellin's attack (1.17× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nOnce Caldas's defence (0.96× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nRest days (Independiente Medellin 6, Once Caldas 8) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1549828,
  "home": "Independiente Medellin",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T01:10:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera A",
  "league_api_id": 239,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4848,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-239-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.95",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4921,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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