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Entry #886: pick published

Hash verified

San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC: Home win 31% @ 3.56 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T02:05:57.029625+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c2ce6e45cea890eefa01b58badd97b3a9fcb01a7d176620ccdd11b8d1daae0b8
Stored hash: 7909fb9f4a22b0a62afcbe0fb629ad4ae1d817b3994d4ef2c66113ededc31a0c
Recomputed: 7909fb9f4a22b0a62afcbe0fb629ad4ae1d817b3994d4ef2c66113ededc31a0c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Nashville SC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0509,
  "explanation": "Home win: 31% against a market price of 26% (+5.1%).\nExpected goals San Jose Earthquakes 1.61 – 1.47 Nashville SC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nNashville SC's defence (0.86× the league rate against) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nSan Jose Earthquakes missing 1.8 regular starters; Nashville SC missing 2.3 regular starters adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nNashville SC's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+1.2 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+1.0 pts); Away win 47% → 45% (-2.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1490553,
  "home": "San Jose Earthquakes",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2593,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "3.56",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3103,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 31% (+1.2 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+1.0 pts); Away win 47% → 45% (-2.2 pts)."
}

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