Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "San Diego",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0047,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Los Angeles Galaxy 1.68 – 1.41 San Diego.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nSan Diego's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nLos Angeles Galaxy's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nLos Angeles Galaxy missing 2.9 regular starters; San Diego missing 3.9 regular starters adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Draw 23% → 24% (+0.9 pts); Away win 35% → 33% (-1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1490551,
  "home": "Los Angeles Galaxy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4219,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4265,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Draw 23% → 24% (+0.9 pts); Away win 35% → 33% (-1.1 pts)."
}