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Entry #888: pick published

Hash verified

Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal: Away win 15% @ 7.26 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T02:06:04.941655+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 34fd16ae4fff0377dd7165c01e9531534c5bc81a00d9b4a581f06717ee1c98d1
Stored hash: 73d44abed9ad77e86a0b3c874aacd01e36bca478f4ed837b7ee237ada369fd43
Recomputed: 73d44abed9ad77e86a0b3c874aacd01e36bca478f4ed837b7ee237ada369fd43

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "CF Montreal",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0334,
  "explanation": "Away win: 15% against a market price of 12% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Seattle Sounders 1.80 – 1.00 CF Montreal.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 21% (uncertainty ±4.4%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) takes 2.4 pts from away win.\nCF Montreal's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nCF Montreal's defence (1.10× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nSeattle Sounders's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 64% (-2.7 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+1.6 pts); Away win 14% → 15% (+1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1490552,
  "home": "Seattle Sounders",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T02:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.119,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "7.26",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.1524,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 64% (-2.7 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+1.6 pts); Away win 14% → 15% (+1.1 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}

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