Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC prediction

21:30

Sun 1 Nov, 21:30 Mercedes-Benz Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 85%Books 86% Best odds 1.15 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

45%

Bookmakers 44%

Draw

23%

Bookmakers 24%

Away win

32%

Bookmakers 33%

Us 45%Bookmakers 44% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.8%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.9% alone is not enough).

Home win: 45% against a market price of 44% (+0.9%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC preview

Atlanta United FC host Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 1 November at 21:30 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Our model gives Atlanta United FC 45%, the draw 23% and Toronto FC 32%; the bookmakers' prices said 44%, 24% and 33%.

Atlanta United FC have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 11 conceded).

Toronto FC have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (11 scored, 9 conceded).

In their last 5 meetings Atlanta United FC won 2, Toronto FC won 1 and 2 were drawn, with 2.0 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 85%.

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