Corinthians vs Mirassol prediction
Fri 30 Oct, 23:00
Neo Quimica Arena
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUs 74%Books 74% Best odds 1.33 (Bet365)
Match result: no bet
Home win
51%
Bookmakers 55%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
23%
Bookmakers 19%
Us 51%Bookmakers 55%
Odds too short
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 51% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 51% against a market price of 55% (-4.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Corinthians vs Mirassol preview
Corinthians host Mirassol in the Serie A on Friday 30 October at 23:00 at Neo Quimica Arena.
Our model gives Corinthians 51%, the draw 26% and Mirassol 23%; the bookmakers' prices said 55%, 25% and 19%.
Corinthians have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 13 conceded).
Mirassol have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 3 conceded).
In their last 3 meetings Corinthians won 1, Mirassol won 2 and 0 were drawn, with 3.0 goals a game.
Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 74%.
More Serie A predictions
All Serie A matches- Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 Fluminense vs Internacional Fluminense win 49% @ 1.95
- Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 Santos vs Palmeiras Palmeiras win 42% @ 2.40
- Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc RB Bragantino win 72% @ 1.32
- Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 Bahia vs Sao Paulo Bahia win 48% @ 2.06
- Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 Remo vs Botafogo Botafogo win 38% @ 2.43
- Thu 29 Oct, 22:30 Coritiba vs Vitoria Coritiba win 41% @ 2.34
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsCorinthians
LDLLL
- 24 Oct · A v Vasco DA Gama 2–3 (xG 0.77–1.79)
- 19 Oct · H v Vitoria 1–1 (xG 1.64–0.84)
- 11 Oct · A v Palmeiras 1–4 (xG 0.71–2.60)
- 7 Oct · A v Internacional 1–2 (xG 2.44–1.76)
- 20 Sep · H v Fluminense 1–3 (xG 2.44–2.38)
Mirassol
DWLDW
- 24 Oct · H v Sao Paulo 1–1 (xG 1.32–1.13)
- 16 Oct · H v Internacional 2–0 (xG 3.20–0.72)
- 11 Oct · A v Bahia 0–1 (xG 1.82–3.15)
- 7 Oct · A v RB Bragantino 1–1 (xG 1.19–2.56)
- 19 Sep · H v Botafogo 2–0 (xG 1.22–1.35)
Head-to-head
Corinthians 1 · draws 0 · Mirassol 2, 3.0 goals a game
- 3 May 2026 · Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians (Serie A)
- 5 Oct 2025 · Corinthians 3–0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 10 May 2025 · Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians (Serie A)