Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense prediction

00:30

Fri 30 Oct, 00:30 Arena do Grêmio

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 74%Books 74% Best odds 1.36 (Bet365)

Match result: no bet

Home win

38%

Bookmakers 36%

Draw

28%

Bookmakers 28%

Away win

34%

Bookmakers 36%

Us 38%Bookmakers 36% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.0%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 38% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.5% alone is not enough).

Home win: 38% against a market price of 36% (+2.5%).

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Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense preview

Gremio host Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A on Friday 30 October at 00:30 at Arena do Grêmio.

Our model gives Gremio 38%, the draw 28% and Atletico Paranaense 34%; the bookmakers' prices said 36%, 28% and 36%.

Gremio have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (5 scored, 6 conceded).

Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (9 scored, 7 conceded).

In their last 3 meetings Gremio won 2, Atletico Paranaense won 0 and 1 was drawn, with 1.3 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 74%.

More Serie A predictions

All Serie A matches

Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 Fluminense vs Internacional Fluminense win 49% @ 1.95
Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 Santos vs Palmeiras Palmeiras win 42% @ 2.40
Wed 28 Oct, 22:30 RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc RB Bragantino win 72% @ 1.32
Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 Bahia vs Sao Paulo Bahia win 48% @ 2.06
Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 Remo vs Botafogo Botafogo win 38% @ 2.43
Thu 29 Oct, 22:30 Coritiba vs Vitoria Coritiba win 41% @ 2.34

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Gremio

WLDDD

26 Oct · A v Coritiba 1–0 (xG 1.87–1.21)
18 Oct · H v Cruzeiro 2–4 (xG 2.07–1.54)
11 Oct · H v Internacional 1–1 (xG 1.44–0.78)
7 Oct · A v Remo 1–1 (xG 2.61–1.32)
20 Sep · H v Palmeiras 0–0 (xG 0.97–2.49)

Atletico Paranaense

DLWDW

24 Oct · A v Vitoria 1–1 (xG 0.57–1.69)
17 Oct · H v Palmeiras 0–2 (xG 1.21–0.38)
12 Oct · A v Chapecoense-sc 4–1 (xG 1.39–1.75)
8 Oct · H v Atletico-MG 2–2 (xG 2.48–1.50)
20 Sep · H v Bahia 2–1 (xG 0.64–1.19)

Head-to-head

Gremio 2 · draws 1 · Atletico Paranaense 0, 1.3 goals a game

2 May 2026 · Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio (Serie A)
4 Aug 2024 · Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Gremio (Serie A)
17 Apr 2024 · Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)