Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction

22:15

Sat 31 Oct, 22:15

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goals

Us 82%Books 83% Best odds 1.20 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

49%

Bookmakers 48%

Draw

29%

Bookmakers 30%

Away win

21%

Bookmakers 22%

Us 49%Bookmakers 48% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.0%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 49% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.0% alone is not enough).

Home win: 49% against a market price of 48% (+1.0%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo preview

Velez Sarsfield host San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 31 October at 22:15.

Our model gives Velez Sarsfield 49%, the draw 29% and San Lorenzo 21%; the bookmakers' prices said 48%, 30% and 22%.

Velez Sarsfield have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (11 scored, 6 conceded).

San Lorenzo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (3 scored, 6 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Velez Sarsfield won 1, San Lorenzo won 1 and 2 were drawn, with 0.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 82%.

More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions

All Liga Profesional Argentina matches

Fri 30 Oct, 22:00 Huracan vs Tigre Huracan win 43% @ 2.25
Fri 30 Oct, 22:00 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. win 50% @ 1.85
Sat 31 Oct, 00:15 Racing Club vs Aldosivi Racing Club win 57% @ 1.65
Sat 31 Oct, 00:15 Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central Rosario Central win 47% @ 2.00
Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente Defensa Y Justicia win 42% @ 2.34
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Deportivo Riestra vs Talleres Cordoba Deportivo Riestra win 42% @ 2.19

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Velez Sarsfield

WWLDW

26 Oct · A v Central Cordoba de Santiago 5–0 (xG 3.30–0.65)
17 Oct · H v Gimnasia M. 1–0 (xG 1.55–0.75)
12 Oct · A v Lanus 0–2 (xG 0.62–1.65)
5 Oct · H v Platense 2–2 (xG 1.52–2.58)
21 Sep · H v Tigre 3–2

San Lorenzo

DWWLL

24 Oct · H v Newells Old Boys 0–0 (xG 0.57–1.03)
18 Oct · A v Estudiantes L.P. 2–1 (xG 0.94–1.02)
11 Oct · H v Deportivo Riestra 1–0 (xG 1.43–1.40)
3 Oct · A v Defensa Y Justicia 0–3 (xG 0.64–2.79)
20 Sep · H v Boca Juniors 0–2 (xG 0.21–2.15)

Head-to-head

Velez Sarsfield 1 · draws 2 · San Lorenzo 1, 0.5 goals a game

20 Apr 2026 · San Lorenzo 0–0 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
7 Aug 2025 · San Lorenzo 1–0 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)
8 Feb 2025 · Velez Sarsfield 0–0 San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina)
14 Sep 2024 · San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina)