Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00
Johan Cruijff Arena
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 88%Books 88% Best odds 1.13 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
54%
Bookmakers 54%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
25%
Bookmakers 24%
Us 54%Bookmakers 54%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 54% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 54% against a market price of 54% (-0.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie on Saturday 31 October at 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Our model gives Ajax 54%, the draw 22% and AZ Alkmaar 25%; the bookmakers' prices said 54%, 22% and 24%.
Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (11 scored, 6 conceded).
AZ Alkmaar have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 7 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Ajax won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 2 and 2 were drawn, with 2.8 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 88%.
More Eredivisie predictions
All Eredivisie matches- Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord win 81% @ 1.18
- Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II PSV Eindhoven win 89% @ 1.09
- Sat 31 Oct, 17:45 Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Heerenveen win 45% @ 2.13
- Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles Cambuur win 39% @ 2.91
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAjax
WWWLD
- 25 Oct · A v Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 (xG 1.43–0.93)
- 22 Oct · H v Atalanta 2–0 (xG 1.78–0.97)
- 18 Oct · A v Groningen 5–2 (xG 3.04–2.29)
- 15 Oct · A v HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 (xG 1.15–1.99)
- 10 Oct · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–1 (xG 1.78–1.05)
AZ Alkmaar
LWDWL
- 25 Oct · H v Twente 0–2 (xG 1.27–2.07)
- 22 Oct · A v Ararat-Armenia 4–0 (xG 1.89–0.43)
- 18 Oct · A v Cambuur 2–2 (xG 1.56–1.53)
- 15 Oct · H v Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 (xG 2.75–1.09)
- 10 Oct · A v Feyenoord 0–2 (xG 1.04–2.23)
Head-to-head
Ajax 0 · draws 2 · AZ Alkmaar 2, 2.8 goals a game
- 8 Feb 2026 · AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 18 Oct 2025 · Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 16 Mar 2025 · Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 8 Dec 2024 · AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax (Eredivisie)