Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka prediction

06:00

Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Mercari Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 80%Books 82% Best odds 1.20 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

56%

Bookmakers 56%

Draw

23%

Bookmakers 23%

Away win

21%

Bookmakers 21%

Us 56%Bookmakers 56% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.7%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 56% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.8% alone is not enough).

Home win: 56% against a market price of 56% (+0.8%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka preview

Kashima host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League on Saturday 31 October at 06:00 at Mercari Stadium.

Our model gives Kashima 56%, the draw 23% and Cerezo Osaka 21%; the bookmakers' prices said 56%, 23% and 21%.

Kashima have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (10 scored, 5 conceded).

Cerezo Osaka have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (6 scored, 8 conceded).

In their last 2 meetings Kashima won 1, Cerezo Osaka won 1 and 0 were drawn, with 2.5 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 80%.

More J1 League predictions

All J1 League matches

Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse Kyoto Sanga win 43% @ 2.70
Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 65% @ 1.48
Sat 31 Oct, 05:00 Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo FC Tokyo win 46% @ 2.15
Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus Vissel Kobe win 53% @ 1.99
Sat 31 Oct, 07:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Kashiwa Reysol win 49% @ 2.12

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Kashima

WLDWW

28 Oct · H v Pohang Steelers 3–0 (xG 2.59–0.18)
24 Oct · H v Kashiwa Reysol 2–3 (xG 1.57–0.67)
21 Oct · A v Kyoto Sanga 2–2 (xG 1.39–0.37)
17 Oct · H v V-varen Nagasaki 2–0 (xG 1.30–1.35)
13 Oct · A v Công An Nhân Dân 1–0 (xG 0.54–0.75)

Cerezo Osaka

DDLDD

25 Oct · H v JEF United Chiba 2–2 (xG 1.59–1.49)
21 Oct · A v Nagoya Grampus 1–1 (xG 0.68–1.09)
17 Oct · H v Kawasaki Frontale 2–4 (xG 2.10–1.48)
10 Oct · H v Yokohama F. Marinos 0–0 (xG 0.76–0.93)
19 Sep · A v V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 (xG 2.88–0.91)

Head-to-head

Kashima 1 · draws 0 · Cerezo Osaka 1, 2.5 goals a game

23 Sep 2025 · Kashima 3–1 Cerezo Osaka (J1 League)
12 Apr 2025 · Cerezo Osaka 1–0 Kashima (J1 League)