Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix prediction

04:00

Sat 31 Oct, 04:00 McDonald Jones Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 83%Books 84% Best odds 1.18 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

45%

Bookmakers 48%

Draw

24%

Bookmakers 24%

Away win

31%

Bookmakers 28%

Us 45%Bookmakers 48% Odds too short Uncertainty ±1.9%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Home win: 45% against a market price of 48% (-3.5%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix preview

Newcastle Jets host Wellington Phoenix in the A-League on Saturday 31 October at 04:00 at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Our model gives Newcastle Jets 45%, the draw 24% and Wellington Phoenix 31%; the bookmakers' prices said 48%, 24% and 28%.

Newcastle Jets have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (7 scored, 18 conceded).

Wellington Phoenix have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 8 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Newcastle Jets won 2, Wellington Phoenix won 2 and 0 were drawn, with 3.8 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 83%.

More A-League predictions

All A-League matches

Fri 30 Oct, 09:00 Brisbane Roar vs Auckland Auckland win 39% @ 2.55
Sat 31 Oct, 06:00 Melbourne City vs Sydney Melbourne City win 43% @ 2.15
Sat 31 Oct, 08:40 Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers Macarthur win 38% @ 2.58

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Newcastle Jets

LDDLL

27 Oct · A v Kyoto Sanga 2–5 (xG 1.80–2.94)
24 Oct · H v Macarthur 1–1
17 Oct · A v Central Coast Mariners 2–2
13 Oct · H v Gamba Osaka 1–3 (xG 0.80–2.01)
15 Sep · A v Kashima 1–7 (xG 0.48–2.46)

Wellington Phoenix

WWLWL

25 Oct · H v Central Coast Mariners 2–0
18 Oct · H v Melbourne Victory 2–1
24 Apr · A v Macarthur 0–4 (xG 1.09–2.50)
18 Apr · H v Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 (xG 1.88–1.54)
12 Apr · A v Melbourne City 0–2 (xG 0.58–2.36)

Head-to-head

Newcastle Jets 2 · draws 0 · Wellington Phoenix 2, 3.8 goals a game

23 Jan 2026 · Newcastle Jets 4–1 Wellington Phoenix (A-League)
14 Dec 2025 · Wellington Phoenix 1–3 Newcastle Jets (A-League)
6 Apr 2025 · Newcastle Jets 1–2 Wellington Phoenix (A-League)
28 Dec 2024 · Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Newcastle Jets (A-League)