Adelaide United vs Home United prediction
Thu 29 Oct, 07:45
Coopers Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 80%Books 80% Best odds 1.20 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
50%
Bookmakers 55%
Draw
25%
Bookmakers 23%
Away win
25%
Bookmakers 22%
Us 50%Bookmakers 55%
Odds too short
Uncertainty ±3.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 50% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 50% against a market price of 55% (-4.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Adelaide United vs Home United preview
Adelaide United host Home United in the AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 29 October at 07:45 at Coopers Stadium.
Our model gives Adelaide United 50%, the draw 25% and Home United 25%; the bookmakers' prices said 55%, 23% and 22%.
Adelaide United have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 5 (6 scored, 8 conceded).
Home United have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (7 scored, 5 conceded).
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 80%.
More AFC Champions League Two predictions
All AFC Champions League Two matches- Wed 28 Oct, 18:15 Khalidiya vs Al Wahda FC Al Wahda FC win 48% @ 2.04
- Thu 29 Oct, 12:15 Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia win 47% @ 2.05
- Thu 29 Oct, 12:15 Wofoo Tai Po vs BG Pathum United BG Pathum United win 66% @ 1.38
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAdelaide United
LWWLL
- 25 Oct · A v Sydney 1–2
- 15 Oct · A v BG Pathum United 2–1 (xG 1.39–1.25)
- 17 Sep · H v Wofoo Tai Po 3–0
- 11 Aug · H v Công An Nhân Dân 0–2
- 15 May · H v Auckland 0–3 (xG 1.35–2.03)
Home United
WDWWL
- 15 Oct · A v Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 (xG 1.46–0.47)
- 17 Sep · H v BG Pathum United 1–1
- 10 Dec · A v Selangor 1–0
- 26 Nov · H v Persib Bandung 3–2
- 6 Nov · H v Bangkok United 1–2
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.