Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida Zelvia prediction

12:15

Thu 29 Oct, 12:15 Shanghai Stadium Payam Heidari

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 75%Books 75% Best odds 1.30 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

27%

Bookmakers 27%

Draw

26%

Bookmakers 26%

Away win

47%

Bookmakers 47%

Us 47%Bookmakers 47% Fair price Uncertainty ±3.5%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 47% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

Away win: 47% against a market price of 47% (-0.2%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick

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Shanghai Shenhua vs Machida Zelvia preview

Shanghai Shenhua host Machida Zelvia in the AFC Champions League Two on Thursday 29 October at 12:15 at Shanghai Stadium.

Our model gives Shanghai Shenhua 27%, the draw 26% and Machida Zelvia 47%; the bookmakers' prices said 27%, 26% and 47%.

Shanghai Shenhua have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (13 scored, 5 conceded).

Machida Zelvia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 (10 scored, 0 conceded).

In their last 1 meeting Shanghai Shenhua won 0, Machida Zelvia won 1 and 0 were drawn, with 2.0 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 75%.

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