Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction

13:00

Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Parque Abraham Paladino

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goals

Us 79%Books 77% Best odds 1.27 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

36%

Bookmakers 36%

Draw

29%

Bookmakers 29%

Away win

34%

Bookmakers 36%

Us 36%Bookmakers 36% Fair price Uncertainty ±1.7%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 36% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.8% alone is not enough).

Home win: 36% against a market price of 36% (+0.8%).

The full reasoning, 17 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Progreso vs Defensor Sporting preview

Progreso host Defensor Sporting in the Primera División on Sunday 1 November at 13:00 at Parque Abraham Paladino.

Our model gives Progreso 36%, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 34%; the bookmakers' prices said 36%, 29% and 36%.

Progreso have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (8 scored, 5 conceded).

Defensor Sporting have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 (8 scored, 10 conceded).

In their last 4 meetings Progreso won 1, Defensor Sporting won 2 and 1 was drawn, with 2.8 goals a game.

Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 79%.

More Primera División predictions

All Primera División matches

Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo Racing Montevideo win 52% @ 1.77
Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 Cerro vs Central Espanol Cerro win 42% @ 2.38
Sat 31 Oct, 19:30 Penarol vs Wanderers Penarol win 62% @ 1.47
Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 Boston River vs Atletico Torque Atletico Torque win 47% @ 2.15
Sun 1 Nov, 23:00 Albion FC vs Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado win 41% @ 2.25
Sun 1 Nov, 23:00 Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud Liverpool Montevideo win 45% @ 2.15

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Progreso

WWDLW

25 Oct · A v Wanderers 1–0
17 Oct · H v Juventud 2–0
10 Oct · A v Penarol 1–1
3 Oct · A v Liverpool Montevideo 2–3
26 Sep · H v Racing Montevideo 2–1

Defensor Sporting

DLLLW

24 Oct · H v Racing Montevideo 3–3
17 Oct · A v Boston River 0–1
10 Oct · H v Cerro 2–3
3 Oct · A v Albion FC 2–3
27 Sep · H v Danubio 1–0

Head-to-head

Progreso 1 · draws 1 · Defensor Sporting 2, 2.8 goals a game

27 Apr 2026 · Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso (Primera División)
20 Apr 2025 · Defensor Sporting 1–2 Progreso (Primera División)
15 Jun 2024 · Defensor Sporting 1–1 Progreso (Primera División)
12 May 2024 · Progreso 1–4 Defensor Sporting (Primera División)