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Entry #53: pick published

Hash verified

Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS: Home win 45% @ 2.10 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:12.417277+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f51f975d5bdbd65e2da19b68770131712906045bc642bdf68cebb1977b6044bd
Stored hash: 08537c0013b625262b4ef4aa2bb2ab7fcdd555b0c705d68545e657f1dfea61b6
Recomputed: 08537c0013b625262b4ef4aa2bb2ab7fcdd555b0c705d68545e657f1dfea61b6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Radnicki NIS",
  "bookmakers": 9,
  "edge": 0.01,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 44% (+1.0%).\nExpected goals Radnik Surdulica 1.69 – 0.94 Radnicki NIS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±13.1%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+48% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRadnicki NIS's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1553889,
  "home": "Radnik Surdulica",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4387,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.10",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4486,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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