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Entry #54: pick published

Hash verified

Oţelul v Csikszereda: Home win 59% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:14.897986+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 08537c0013b625262b4ef4aa2bb2ab7fcdd555b0c705d68545e657f1dfea61b6
Stored hash: 5be40a212aa3809e16eecbf56d7f45675c86bd505a639e07de50b13f1472717b
Recomputed: 5be40a212aa3809e16eecbf56d7f45675c86bd505a639e07de50b13f1472717b

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Csikszereda",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0093,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 58% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Oţelul 2.08 – 0.97 Csikszereda.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 63% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+47% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nCsikszereda's defence (1.22× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nCsikszereda's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1565274,
  "home": "Oţelul",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5805,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5898,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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