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{
  "away": "Irao",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0033,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 49% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals Gonio 1.51 – 1.07 Irao.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±10.5%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nGonio's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1507459,
  "home": "Gonio",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga 3",
  "league_api_id": 1104,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4922,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-1104-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.88",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4889,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}