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Entry #67: pick published

Hash verified

AC Horsens v Randers FC: Away win 39% @ 2.35 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:00:32.858601+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2de3d8fd9a7ffe0e2dc482170d44b538c6061d2e3ebd5bfe13432b1436e020bf
Stored hash: 4ce57b99b461694ae6a1c3b52ac9bfaa19f264fba9d69161873e0ad26d4b508d
Recomputed: 4ce57b99b461694ae6a1c3b52ac9bfaa19f264fba9d69161873e0ad26d4b508d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Randers FC",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0119,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 40% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals AC Horsens 1.78 – 1.46 Randers FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 31% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAC Horsens's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+12% goals at home) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).",
  "fixture": 1549035,
  "home": "AC Horsens",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superliga",
  "league_api_id": 119,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3992,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-119-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.35",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3873,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#66 #68

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